The Week Ahead
Volume 104 - Many men wish death upon me
What happened at the weekend, no matter which side you take on the political spectrum, was close to being a disaster. How on earth someone could set up that close to a presidential candidate is quite incredible, but I am no security specialist, so no point speculating. For some reason, Trump nearly being assassinated has helped him in this election, according to betting markets. Betfair Exchange odds are now 1.46 x 1.47, which puts Trump at just shy of a 70% probability of winning the election. A few weeks ago, it was 50/50 in the betting. So, with this rapid change over the weekend, I shall look to get my Trump victory basket completed and put on.
Elon (as did many A-listers & business leaders) made a political move when he tweeted his support for Trump over the weekend (Trump didn’t show much interest in or like EVs during his presidency).
What baffles me about the failed assassination is how a politician can gain popularity from one… After the failed attempt at assassinating Reagan, he jumped in the polls shortly after.
FX - Battle won but war has just begun…
Wrong on cable for now. I'm looking to re-open the trade with more size at 1.31. The dollar is taking a breather for now after inflation data and an empty calendar for a couple of weeks. Things do work in GBP's favour for now with the May UK GDP data, but UK CPI is to come on Wednesday, so there is potential that we might re-enter this week.
Yentervention galore… Last week, after the CPI, the MoF intervened and started its JPY buying operation. As I have said before, these operations are only temporary solutions and have little to no effect in the long run. Expect the recent JPY bid to be faded shortly as X/JPY dips are bought. (Carry remains attractive, so own it, blah di bla.) I expect from here, with the odd dip occasionally, that USD/JPY will grind higher into the US election.
For the week ahead, the dollar index hovers ~104, which remains to be a key support. If it continues to hold, then >104.5 is possible. If it were to break, then <103.5 would possibly trade… (The next support below here is 103.87)
Single Stock, Index & Vol
As I mentioned in the 2H24 post, I would like to…