Bond mkt is handing the Fed a free hike since it’s already there. One potential scenario is that the Fed does hike and Warsh is a bit more dovish in the presser to appease Trump.
Agreed - a hike with a less aggressive message about what follows could be taken quite well. I'd be more concerned if the presser left people thinking they'd underestimated what's coming.
Saying this, getting the decision right and getting the right market reaction are two different things here.
Hmm, not sure I want to get in front of a Fed that clearly believes it’s at the beginning of a hiking cycle (12-0 !?), whether or not that ends up being true. When the Fed speakers get out there they’re going to be hawkish af.
Good Morning. Thanks for another great article. I'm having trouble following your trades over the last month or so. I know there weren't many, and that's kind of the point, but I missed on when you bought those QQQ puts and those sure would've been helpful. Cheers!
The 'would be' in that post affected my interpretation of when the QQQ puts would be put on vs they already were put on more than it should have. Thanks again for your sharing your thoughts with us.
Do you trust ai agents to do stuff for you? I personally would not. At least with a personal assistant, someone is held accountable if something gets messed up. Who do you hold accountable if something catastrophic occurred?
Does the rise in the MOVE index trouble you, or is there a level at which you would be troubled (given the additional threats of rising diesel prices and a strengthening yen)?
Bond mkt is handing the Fed a free hike since it’s already there. One potential scenario is that the Fed does hike and Warsh is a bit more dovish in the presser to appease Trump.
Agree, the pain trade is up.
Agreed - a hike with a less aggressive message about what follows could be taken quite well. I'd be more concerned if the presser left people thinking they'd underestimated what's coming.
Saying this, getting the decision right and getting the right market reaction are two different things here.
Hmm, not sure I want to get in front of a Fed that clearly believes it’s at the beginning of a hiking cycle (12-0 !?), whether or not that ends up being true. When the Fed speakers get out there they’re going to be hawkish af.
Good Morning. Thanks for another great article. I'm having trouble following your trades over the last month or so. I know there weren't many, and that's kind of the point, but I missed on when you bought those QQQ puts and those sure would've been helpful. Cheers!
Morning dude.. The QQQ hedge was given in last weeks post, alongside ASML? Taking note...
The 'would be' in that post affected my interpretation of when the QQQ puts would be put on vs they already were put on more than it should have. Thanks again for your sharing your thoughts with us.
Do you trust ai agents to do stuff for you? I personally would not. At least with a personal assistant, someone is held accountable if something gets messed up. Who do you hold accountable if something catastrophic occurred?
Not with free rein, no. But that's what I was getting at in the post. Well it's a bit like the dog ate my homework, you just say the AI did it ;)
Does the rise in the MOVE index trouble you, or is there a level at which you would be troubled (given the additional threats of rising diesel prices and a strengthening yen)?
Meh not so much. If those pressures persisted then maybe. I wouldn't put a hard line at a specific level on MOVE... but if I had to >91...
I think that equities can tolerate some tightening from here, but sustained rate vol would defo concern me.