Thanks Fed! Can you please cover a bit of UK gilts in your 2026 outlook especially when 10yr yield is still relatively high at 4.5%? It looks attractive for long term investors who can hold it to maturity vs other G10 govies but obviously the political risk in UK is only going higher….Thank you!
Few hours ago, IBM CEO made an interesting comment casting doubt on AI capex. If it would have been some other company, it would have been okay. But these guys right in the middle of the AI action saying something like this is really weird. Was wondering if you had a take on it. Here are his comments "IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data center, so the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest”
Hi! Fairly new sub here. Tried to search by myself before asking the dumb question, but failed to find it. Do you have anywhere overview of your current baskets/ portfolio? Thank you
Think there's an angle to take a sector based approach for investing in the industries outlined in the Genesis Mission? It certainly does not help (1) quantum and (2) biotechnology are typically high beta, and there's regulatory risk involved. But the outlined timeline at least provides clear invalidation.
Bang on. There has been close to 0 attention to the Genesis Mission announcement but it is as important imo as the Apollo Program was in the 1960s and the Manhattan Project was in the 1940s, for the same reasons, which is: re-establish US supremacy in the world. Once the A-bomb, then space, and now AI. I don’t know why more people aren’t paying attention to this.
Thanks Fed! Can you please cover a bit of UK gilts in your 2026 outlook especially when 10yr yield is still relatively high at 4.5%? It looks attractive for long term investors who can hold it to maturity vs other G10 govies but obviously the political risk in UK is only going higher….Thank you!
Great piece.. thanks
I’m curious. How are you measuring AI showing up in productivity and earnings?
💯😎
Few hours ago, IBM CEO made an interesting comment casting doubt on AI capex. If it would have been some other company, it would have been okay. But these guys right in the middle of the AI action saying something like this is really weird. Was wondering if you had a take on it. Here are his comments "IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data center, so the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest”
Never mind. figured it out. his comment in the right context is not as panicky as it sounded on surface.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Great read!!! Thanks 🙏
IF liquidity is coming back, then Bitcoin will lead. That's what I look for. Otherwise bear market started.
Hi! Fairly new sub here. Tried to search by myself before asking the dumb question, but failed to find it. Do you have anywhere overview of your current baskets/ portfolio? Thank you
On the discord yes
Thank you! Will you put together a 2026 outlook?
I will. That comes later in the month.
Great Piece Fed - the widening of AI effect are these your phase 2 list of stocks or you thinking of wider beneficiaries?
The drop in cryptos spooked me out of ES long, as cryptos are often sensitive to liquidity
Think there's an angle to take a sector based approach for investing in the industries outlined in the Genesis Mission? It certainly does not help (1) quantum and (2) biotechnology are typically high beta, and there's regulatory risk involved. But the outlined timeline at least provides clear invalidation.
Great post @fed
Crypto down... Correlation with QQQ going back several months. Calls at open? VRT? ETN? Play on Genesis?
Bang on. There has been close to 0 attention to the Genesis Mission announcement but it is as important imo as the Apollo Program was in the 1960s and the Manhattan Project was in the 1940s, for the same reasons, which is: re-establish US supremacy in the world. Once the A-bomb, then space, and now AI. I don’t know why more people aren’t paying attention to this.
Great work as always Fed