18 Comments
User's avatar
Finnbarian's avatar

Could you please take a look at my substack account. Payment went through yesterday, as normal, and I mistakenly cancelled my subscription. Now I can't access the substack/discord. Substack profile is under Finnbarian. Thanks

Will's avatar

SPX $7000 by year end, everyone is saying it, yet no one believes it 🤝

Shubham's avatar

Thanks for sharing. This helped

Harvey Spector's avatar

Just liked and reshared, thanks!

Bourbonaficianado's avatar

Amazing write up!

Christian's avatar

Thank you for removing the paywall and sharing, I found this to be extremely valuable perspective

Lord Fed's avatar

Glad to have helped!

Vu Hoang's avatar

Great write up. You look at the market from a critical thinker pov. Not something many on X do.

Nine's avatar

I want to expand. Anyone can point at a number, or a chart, or a “this happened 17 times in the 13 years and the result of 12 times was this.” Good for you, bro. Happy for you.

When there is an infinite data set, there are an infinite number of rationalizations to confirm a bias.

The profound insights are only loosely based on numbers. The real insight reaches into the psychology of the market—the psychology of the mind—like this.

Nine's avatar

This post is a masterclass.

My favorite post of the entire year. What a gift to hear your thinking outloud. Thanks.

Rich's avatar

Merry Christmas! Great perspective and on target imo.

motor's avatar

Merry Christmas!

Alexander Allen's avatar

You are by far my favorite thinker-practitioner on X, and on Substack. I like everything that I read of you. You are deep, thorough and consistent. Your convictions match your delivery. I like that you don’t hedge too much speaking about your views on the state of the market and where we are heading next. You are expensive, and rightfully so. Regretfully, I have to cancel my subscription. My Substack expenditures proliferated and are out of hand now. Need to step back and reassess where my money should be going. But you are on a short list when I am coming back. Merry Christmas, Lord Fed!

David's avatar

i leave one sentence to you, pal: cancel all the other subs, stick with the man. he has proven his trading acumen many times in the past, a read of the market sentiment and position like no others, his words help me become a more profitable PM.

Lord Fed's avatar

You lied! You wrote two sentences - not one! 🤣

Lord Fed's avatar

Sorry to hear, look forward to your return. Have a great Christmas.

innermonologue's avatar

Great piece. Really appreciated the psychology bit. Any recommendations if we should rotate and if so where? Maybe I missed the entire point, but half of me wants to load orcl and the like. The other half wants non tech indexes. 😅. Cheers and merry Christmas to all.

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc's avatar

Great note. Very thoughtful. FWIW I agree on ORCL; personally I was stopped out when it lost the 200-day on earnings, but if it can reclaim the 200 I’ll probably go again. Ellison is often late to a party and has to spend big to overcompensate - (i) he was a cloud refusenik early on, now a true believer (ii) failed to see the threat from open source, then bought Sun Micro for big bucks to own Java (and MySQL) - I see this move in AI in that context. He runs a levered buyback business which has bought him large parts of Malibu and Hawaii. I will fall off my chair if ORCL defaults.