This Is the First Time I’ve Been Worried All Year

Volume 159 - The Week Ahead

Let’s start with the obvious. The market basically finished the week flat, green actually. We sold off, we bounced, and we ended the week almost exactly where we began. Anyone looking only at Friday’s close would think nothing happened.

But somehow, a flat week managed to trigger more drama than any proper red week we have seen this year. And the part that caught my attention was not the move itself. It was the reaction to it. The market had every excuse to actually break this week. Momentum properly cracked, NDX felt heavy again and AI looks tired. All the usual “end of the world” ingredients were there.

Yet the index refused to go down. It absorbed the whole thing and finished unchanged.

I was not worried about the selloff. Nor was I worried about the headlines/noise. What bothered me for a moment was the idea that if this week did not break the market, then what actually will. It made me step back and properly reassess what is really holding this thing up, because the tape once again did the opposite of what the narrative wanted.

And for the first time this year, I have caught myself wondering if the structure underneath this rally is finally starting to thin out. I am not calling a top, but something about this week felt different enough that I had to stop and actually think about the next move and you’ll probably be surprised by what you’re about to read…