Good evening,
One hundred and fifty volu. Hard to believe we're here.
From the first time I sat down to write one of these with a few readers and no clue if anyone online would care to read me just jotting my thoughts down, to now, three years later, probably a million words deep, and SPX knocking on all-time highs, it's surreal to have 16,000 readers every week.
Friday's NFP was the kind of print that doesn't just move markets, it rewrites the script. Payrolls at a pathetic 22k versus 75k expected. June revised into negative territory, the first time since 2020. And under the hood? Full-time employment cratered while part-time work surged and the bond market finally moved like someone had just screamed fire in a crowded theatre, shame it’s still range-bound.
Rate cuts aren't a question of if anymore. It’s a question of how deep and how fast.