The Week Ahead
Volume 89 - Party like its 1999
Don’t count the days, make the days count.
-- Muhammad Ali
Good morning/afternoon/evening, wherever you may be,
A great week for paid subscribers and all of those who follow me on Twitter after I shared a quick ten-bagger on Wednesday.
As well as a few other index trades in the week shared in this tweet - x.com/lord_fed/status/1761133833884188969?s=20.
Remind yourself of last week’s post (below) to see what I am watching on index… I have more to say in this post.
The Week Ahead
Good evening from a gloomy UK, I hope everybody in the States is having a lovely day off. It was a solid week for paid subscribers last week. Volume 87 of TWA was a short one but prescient. Here’s some snippets of what I wrote… There will be no trades for all 9000 of you this week; the past two trades have returned well over 100% (EUR put spread & CL calls). This week’s will be behind the wall! A lot to discuss, so I will dig in…
How markets are looking…
FX
I think the dollar stays bid, carry should continue to work and only will we see more clear shifts in currencies when we have policy divergences.
For carry, this is what I mentioned last week: “For carry… Funders can be JPY, CHF, EUR… Long expressions - USD, MXN, BRL. BRL is an interesting one because the strong trade surpluses should stick around due to contributions from oil exports. This will also generate more substantial govt revenues, which should make BRL well-supported.”
Keep holding all FX trades we have on; let’s look to possibly press EUR/GBP this week. Here’s what I said about the cross last week “For the EUR/GBP long, keep holding. This trade would’ve worked faster had we seen a unanimous decision from the BoE… So if the two MPC hawks drop their higher rate votes, then it could be go-time for the pair. When you consider UK disinflation, the market might see through the next vote and assume that this will happen.”