The Week Ahead
Volume 124 - Tariff Tantrums
Markets are coming off one volatile week into another as the latest tariff announcements shift the macro landscape. The Federal Reserve’s rate path remains in focus, equities continue to grind higher, though positioning shows signs of crowding at the top. FX remains a dollar-driven story, while commodities are responding to both systematic flows and fresh supply concerns.
The last week ahead that was spot on, again, “I think we are mid stop-in and this market has a bit to go. I think the DeepSeek news is well overhyped and any short term weakness that comes from it will be bought back.”
I also tweeted the following on the Twitter for Substack subscribers: (times are GMT)
The earnings relevant to my port went well, especially IBM which was a Year Ahead trade shared in Volume 121 of the Week Ahead
Anyway… less about last week and more on to this. Sorry the post is a little late, I was in A&E last night with a kidney stone…
The theme of the week is obviously going to be Tariffs, so we will start on that note.
Tariffs
The tariff bombshell landed hard last week, and markets are still recalibrating. A 25% tariff has been slapped on nearly all imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy seeing a reduced 10% rate. China, too, is back in the crosshairs, with a 10% tariff applied across the board and the threat of further escalation. The justification ties back to fentanyl trade and border security. As a result, inflation expectations have moved higher.
Despite rate pricing,