The Week Ahead
Volume 129 - If there's a week to trade what's in front of you, this is it
I’ve been wrong this quarter, not one or twice. I have found it tricky. Not sure why, as the trend has been quite simple. Best trade of the quarter for me has been a Gold call spread I opened up a while back.
This week, I’m just trading what I see, staying small, and not trying to be too clever. Because we’re heading into the most binary week of the year so far, and I’m not convinced we come out with any more clarity just yet.
Single Stocks, Index & Vol
I have said April 2nd is the clearing event, and I stick with that view.
The chatter is clear: most have de-risked. HFs de-grossed in March at the fastest pace since the Covid lows. Systematic money is short. Retail stepped up into the hole but is now backing away. Everyone’s light. But nobody is brave.
If there’s a week to just trade the tape, this is it. This morning’s action doesn’t look promising following Friday’s session - I risked 35bps on a 0DTE SPX 5480p for $14.90 per contract this morning. Partly to hedge, but also to mitigate some downside risk for a market full of uncertainty heading into quarter-end.