The Week Ahead
As expected ES was range-bound this week. Very slow week post masters into a four day week. This week I expect to see some more movement. A close below 4400 wasn’t really what I wished for but I don’t deem it bearish. A bearish close for me would’ve been 4330-4350. I imagine the week ahead will be rather choppy. Not really a heavy economic data week, though I believe this week will have a bullish bias heading towards ~4500 to explore up there. I still feel that we need to see above 4600 again at some point.
Oil wise, as I mentioned last week “I remain short a thousand lots of CL with stops at BE. I do expect we can see some movement to the upside”. We saw oil up ~6% for the week. Can the move up continue? Yes, it could, however, there’s some pretty strong resistance on CL @ 108.75, 111 and 112.5. I am still yet to be stopped out @ breakeven on oil but can see it happening when futures open tonight. I would love to re-enter short above 110.
The same applies with the comments regarding the VIX, US10Y and DXY. I would like to see the VIX around 20, US10Y perhaps back to 2.6% and RE the DXY how it handles being above 100.
The week ahead includes lots of major earnings.
Monday - Bank of America, Schwab, BNY Mellon, Synchrony
Tuesday - Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, IBM
Wednesday - P&G, Tesla, Alcoa, Abbott Labs, United Airlines, Equifax, Kinder Morgan.
Thursday - American Airlines, Snap, AT&T, Dow, Philip Morris
Friday - Verizon, Schlumberger, American Express, SAP.
From the above, I hold; Synchrony, Bank of America, Netflix, IBM, Tesla, Abbott Labs, AT&T & Verizon. So yes… This week for me will be busy. Despite at the time only having a small position I do have slight PTSD after Netflix's last earnings. The position is a lot larger now and has one of the highest weightings in my port. I will be looking to hedge a bit more tomorrow. I already have some OTM calls written against the position for Jun.
Some stocks I have been looking into over the weekend - AVO, LMNR, CVGW, FDP.
Some stocks I was buying in the past week were ON, AMD, and HOOD.
I continue to monitor VTEB, COOP, SYF, C, STT, WBA. I might dabble and write some puts to get a feel for each.
Another thing to monitor, Tesla has been a powerhouse for indicating where the S&P is heading. The 980 level is a key pivot. I personally think once Tesla clears 1050-1065 area it can explore it’s ATH. Tesla earnings are always interesting… I always find writing deep OTM strangles has worked well for me if I fancy wetting my beak.
For the downside this week, I am watching 4387, 4360 & 4330.
For tomorrow… A close above 4425 on ES would make me feel comfortable.
Any questions feel free to comment or DM on Twitter.
Happy Easter,
LF
What makes Tesla such a good indicator for the s&p500? Is it down to its the weighting in the index? Do any other stocks have the same/similar standing in the s&p500 with regards to seeing what it might do?
Cheers Fed. Happy Easter