Why Everyone's Still Wrong About This Market
Volume 146 - The Week Ahead
NOTHING LIKE A TACO ON A SUNDAY!
*CHINA, US TO EXTEND TARIFF PAUSE BY ANOTHER 90 DAYS: SCMP
Last week was a textbook continuation of the grudging acceptance stage, and we nailed it. Realised some solid gains on some single names and index long. Recent trades shared on here:
GOOGL 08/01 185C (given at 6.45), LTP 8.80 (still holding all - didn’t see as high as I expected)
IBKR 08/15 60C (given at 2.35) is now trading 6.20.
And yes, ES1 6,400 called here last week traded faster than most thought possible.
Positioning remains light, vol is cheap, and corporate execution (especially in AI) continues to surprise to the upside. Earnings season has crushed the low bar thus far. Cloud, ads, margins all showing life. And when the best-performing trades are in the boring names? That's pain trade fuel.
This week we have a solid lineup: plenty of earnings, FOMC on Wednesday, NFP Friday, and a market that doesn't seem to care. You could argue we're overdue for a dip, but when you look at how underexposed most are, the path of least resistance is still higher.
Anyway… Let me put my balls on the line again.