I’m Bearish. Here’s Why.
Volume 141 - The Week Ahead
While everyone was glued to the news about US involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict last week, the Phase 2 basket delivered another monster week: BASE +30% on acquisition news, CRWV +25%, LEU +17%, CRDO +16%, VST +6.5%.
With the U.S. now officially stepping into the Iran–Israel conflict, the market’s playbook is predictable - I’d say index futures down ~1%, oil up ~6%. If anything, I could see these moves being faded.
I've seen a flood of terrible takes this weekend, trying to guess what happens next. But speculating on war outcomes isn’t my game, and frankly, it’s not actionable. So I won’t waste your time with half-baked predictions.
I fell asleep at my desk writing this, but safe to say what I expected happened: oil flat, equities slightly green.
That said, following on from my brief post late last week where I shared a few thoughts on the Fed (and teased a shift in tone), I think it’s time we go deeper on why I am bearish