The Most Hated Rally in Modern History
What's On My Mind
This is your last call. Both monthly and annual prices go up after today's close.
If you've been lurking, reading but not subscribing, now's the time. The next three months are going to be wild, and I'll be in the thick of it.
Most of SPX performance has been driven by about 10 names - you know the ones. Despite being deep in earnings season, it's not just about beating EPS anymore. It's about who's still sitting underweight while everyone else scrambles to catch up.
We're in what I call the "grudging acceptance" phase of this rally. There's still serious firepower left in the tank, and systematic strategies couldn't care less about traditional valuation metrics.
Every bull market has its own psychological fingerprint, and this one's is fascinating: it's built on shame, disbelief, and chronic underexposure. We're witnessing the most hated rally in modern history. Fund managers know they're running light, but they physically cannot bring themselves to chase these highs. Hedge funds are net long but hedged to the teeth. Everyone's constantly looking over their shoulder, waiting for that inevitable crash... while price just keeps melting higher day after day.
That's not euphoria driving this market. That's pure, stubborn denial.
Performance pressures will soon force a capitulatory stop-in.
If you’ve been wrong, the best thing you can do is stop trying to explain why. Every day spent defending a thesis that’s no longer working is time wasted. The market doesn’t care how logical your view sounded in April, or how many macro charts supported it. What matters is what’s in front of you now. Adapt or underperform. There’s nothing weak about admitting a misstep. What’s weak is clinging to a dead position because your ego’s wrapped around it. Block out the noise, reset the slate, and re-engage with clarity. The market doesn’t need your opinion. It needs your discipline.