The Most Dangerous Market Is the One That Goes Nowhere

Into the close...

March is doing what February started. The data is getting worse. The charts are getting worse. My timeline is full of people who were right and want me to know about it.

I’ve been sitting on this post for three weeks.

That’s not normal for me. I think fast, I write fast, I publish and move on. But this one has been open in a tab since mid-February, half-finished, getting longer and then shorter and then deleted back to almost nothing.

Some of you have been in my DMs. Asking if I’ve flipped. Asking if the Year Ahead is getting quietly shelved. Asking if the name I’ve been most convicted about for the better part of six months has finally broken.

What I will say is this. The last three weeks have felt different from every other drawdown I've navigated since starting this letter. Not in the magnitude. In the quality of the doubt. There's a version of being wrong that feels like noise. And there's a version that makes you sit very still and ask whether you misread something fundamental.

I've been sitting very still…