Same Bull, Different Rules

Volume 167 - The Week Ahead

The simplest way to think about what has happened recently is that January didn’t kill the bull market, it changed who gets paid in it.

For most of 2025, markets were on easy mode. You could be sloppy with risk, late to moves, and still win because the plumbing was doing the work for you. Carry was clean, volatility stayed asleep from April, and the crowd was structurally wrong-footed. That regime broke last month.

The free ride disappeared, but the rally didn’t. Instead, we moved from a melt-up to a toll road: you can still go higher, but you now have to choose the right vehicles to get there.

If you only watch index price action, you’ll miss what actually changed. The real story is happening underneath the surface - in single names, FX, in flows/positioning, and in who is quietly getting squeezed.

We are in a market that looks calm while quietly punishing the wrong exposures. If you’re positioned like 2025, you are on borrowed time as the easy money has been made.

This morning I opened a new gold position - below the paywall I'll explain why, and what else is on my radar this week.