Another very worrying week with S&P making a new all time high.
As I said last week, the pain trade is up. As I also wrote last week, I think people are spending far too much time worrying about the next hike, and I think the focus this quarter will shift back to micro. I still think this earnings season gets us to 8,000 which isn’t too far now, compared to when I first mentioned it. But beyond that I am less certain on the trajectory as there are several scenarios that could play out there, although my bias remains up. I am sticking with both QQQ trades.
What has become more interesting to me is where to add next. I like bonds, which is particularly annoying because it seems plenty of other people do too… although, they’ve liked them for quite some time.
And then there’s AI. I keep thinking of putting my Phase 2 basket back on but something keeps putting me off. Even with single names the price action isn’t convincing enough. Take CRDO for example. Hold it at 4%; at one point it was 10%, repeatedly considering taking it back up to 8% but repeatedly finding a reason in the price action not to. ASML has been sold for a gain, leaving some dry powder available for earnings season.
