On the 1st of September, with SPX trading ~6400, I wrote that 6600 was firmly on the cards this month. Last week, we hit it.
That wasn’t luck. It was the continuation of what I’ve been hammering on about since May… Disbelief is the fuel, mechanics > narratives, positioning was too neutral, and in turn the real risk was the right-tail, not the left.
Back in June, I coined it the Summer of Rippy. On July 8th, I said 6500 was “plausible” over the summer. People laughed, but it happened a month later. From the mid-5000s in May, to 6200 and 6300 in June, to 6500 in August, to 6600 in September, every level I laid out has been hit.
So after four months of being right, and after everyone else spent the summer talking seasonality and waiting for blood that never came… the obvious question is: what now?
Because the truth is, the setup I see today doesn’t look like the ones I’ve been leaning on all summer.