If you’re not long Phase II AI, you’re on the wrong side of the curve.
Volume 139 - The Week Ahead
Last Week's Scorecard…
Shall we start with a little victory lap?
NFP scenario hit from last week's mid-week thoughts post, I laid out my NFP scenarios with corresponding SPX reactions in the post below. Called +150bps for SPX for 140k-185k and called it "classic Goldilocks material." NFP delivered 139k (just shy but close enough), and SPX obliged with a +103bps close. Sometimes the market just hands you exactly what you ordered.
Highlights from last week
NVDA 140/145 call spread: In at 1.59, out at 2.63 on Friday expiry
MSFT 470C: Grabbed these mid-week at 67c, managed to take profits on half the position at $2 before letting the rest ride to expiry. The remaining calls finished ITM, so I've taken delivery of MSFT shares, making my position 6.3% weight.
Fresh WWDC AAPL position: Put it on mid-week, still holding.
Gold 3100/3200 call spread: July expiry, still holding.
SPX fly (6/20 expiry): This might be my favourite trade I've put on recently.
MDB: Bought pre-earnings, still holding.
Called 6k for SPX in last week's post and shared some fresh hedges as the July 8 deadline approaches.
The implied move for SPX for the week coming is 191bps. Wednesday's CPI print sits front and centre as the macro event that could dictate direction. Add in PPI Thursday and UMich sentiment Friday and the straddle seems priced to perfection.
Micro events for the week ahead include WWDC, several investor days and the Goldman healthcare conference.
Still some earnings to come - ORCL on Wednesday and ADBE on Thursday. Jensen Huang is speaking at London Tech Week 9:05-9:50AM ET on Monday and again at Viva Tech on Wednesday.
Relevant to the title… ICYMI - see post below RE the Phase II AI basket.
With these catalysts in play and 191bps priced in to the straddle this week, positioning becomes critical. Here's how I'm thinking about this week's setup…