Lord Fed's Gazette

Lord Fed's Gazette

Everyone’s Still Hedged for a Crash That Isn’t Coming

Volume 156 - The Week Ahead

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Lord Fed
Oct 20, 2025
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Last week I didn’t really trade. After the recent 3% flush, I wanted to see how the market behaved once the dust settled and index behaved almost exactly as I said it would.

Recently all I have done is the following… I bought LVMH (MC - Euronext) on October 7th at €550 (3% weight). That’s worked well, it’s now around €605 after solid earnings… Aside from that, I’ve barely lifted a finger. Monday I did nothing. Tuesday, I bought the 0DTE 6660C for 4.9 and sold it at 48.5. Wednesday, I was travelling. Thursday, I put on an SPX 6660/40 put spread at 3.9, sold it at 15, and then tried the same-strike call spread into the close, which expired worthless. Friday, I put on a call spread just before Trump started yapping but I was too late to share it with subscribers as I some how managed to time it a minute before he started to talk… Long story short, I’ve done nothing too meaningful all week.

Last week I wrote: “My base case, some chop early in the week as vol bleeds off, then a steady grind higher into Friday and next week. 6,700-6,750 back on the radar by next week if vol comes off aggressively.” And that’s pretty much how it played out. We chopped early, flushed to 6,570 at the lows on Friday pre-market, and then squeezed right back into the 6,700s by week’s end.

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