Last week, I didn’t do much trading again… and that’s exactly what worked. The Nov 7th ES 6800/6900 call spread I paid 22 for on the 14th is now trading at 71. Plenty of names I am overweight report this week so will be sitting on the sidelines, though saying that I did put on a trade on META last week for earnings…
The setup has gone from unbreakable to combustible. The disbelief bid I wrote about all summer hasn’t vanished, it’s just morphed into right-tail risk. Yep, FORT is back - Fear of Right Tail…
Everyone’s still underexposed, everyone knows it, and everyone’s terrified of being the last one in. You can feel it in every conversation and chart…
The market isn’t climbing a wall of worry or disbelief anymore, it’s climbing a wall of regret. And the higher we go, the smaller the margin for error and every incremental buyer is buying for survival, not on conviction. That’s what makes this phase dangerous in my view - strength built on anxiety, not belief.