2H24 - What is left for the year?

2H24 preview and brief thoughts...

Good day wherever you might be… a beautiful sunny day in Cannes.

I thought I’d do a 2H post as I believe the second half of the year will require tactical finesse. So many themes will be traded, be that election winners or AI. Stocks aren’t cheap; the dollar appears to many to be overbought and with supposed cuts around the corner, many continue to bet against it.

Expect US growth to continue to moderate for the rest of the year, like the rest of the world. Higher for longer was no joke, the big question on everyone’s mind is will the Fed cut in 2024? At present, I still think not.

Stock concentration is at its highest. Most mega-cap tech companies are trading at all-time highs, and for that to continue, they need to keep guiding higher. Momentum crowding continues for now, but the popular breadth expansion call has yet to come to fruition.